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A Citizen’s Eye View of Public Preparedness

As Hurricane Season Gets Going, Census Bureau Report Highlights Skyrocketing Population Growth Of Coastal Counties, Particularly Gulf Coast

July 1st, 2010 · No Comments

As the arrival of Alex signals the start of the hurricane season, I wanted to highlight a recent U.S. Census Bureau study that found in the last 50 years the population in coastline counties has almost doubled, with growth along the Gulf of Mexico soaring by 150 percent.

“Coastline counties along the Atlantic and Gulf, as well as the Hawaiian Islands, account for nearly two-thirds of the nation’s coastline population and are home to four of the nation’s 10 most populous counties,” said Steven Wilson of the Census Bureau’s Population Division, who co-authored the report. “As hurricane season begins, this report should put into perspective the number of Americans living along the coast who might be affected.”

All in all, 87 million people, or 29 percent of the U.S. population, live in coastline counties, including more than 41 million in Atlantic and 32 million in Pacific counties. In 1960, only 47 million lived in coastline counties.

The danger of growth in coastal areas has been a regular talking point of FEMA head Craig Fugate throughout his tenure in Washington and beforehand as Director of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management Agency. Fugate frequently points out that local coastal development policies have contributed to turning natural hazards into natural disasters.

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The Census report, “Coastline Population Trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008,” examines population trends along the country’s saltwater edges — coastline counties — and their shares of coastline states during the period. Specifically, it analyzes trends in the growth and decline, geographic distribution and density of the coastline population. It also incorporates historical data on the trajectories of hurricanes striking the U.S. coastlines to gauge the coastline population’s experience with hurricanes.

Other highlights of the study include:

* The number of housing units along the Gulf of Mexico’s coastline increased by 246 percent from 1960 to 2008, compared with 130 percent in the Pacific and 98 percent in the Atlantic coastline regions and 121 percent for the U.S. as a whole. The number of housing units along the U.S. coastline grew from 16 million to 36 million during this time.

* On average, the 11 coastline counties that were hit by 11 or more hurricanes from 1960 to 2008 increased in population by nearly 179 percent and had a housing unit increase of 255 percent. Among these counties, only Hyde, N.C., lost population (-10.1 percent) and only St. Bernard Parish, La., lost housing units (-2.6 percent).

* Excluding Alaska, the average density of coastline counties increased from 260 people per square mile in 1960 to 480 in 2008. On average, they are twice as densely populated as noncoastline counties. Among the coastline states, only the coastline sections of New York (between 1970 and 1980), Louisiana (from 1980 to 1990 and 2000 to 2008) and Mississippi (from 2000 to 2008) had declines in population density during any decade.

This report is a reminder of the Census Bureau’s role in preparedness providing demographic information to emergency managers. In fact, the Bureau will be releasing this week a new online tool for state and local planners to prepare for hurricanes. (Thanks to my CERT team member Will Sanchez who suggested this topic to me.)

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Tags: Hurricane Preparedness

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