In fact, Shearer — the actor, comedian, activist and a New Orleans resident – said he was provoked to make the movie when President Obama ”referred to the flooding—in passing—as ‘a natural disaster.’ I just hit the roof. I went, ‘OK, blogs and radio and all the other things I’ve been doing clearly aren’t enough. I know what the next step is.’ And it was this.”

Shearer’s major point in “this” is that Katrina was a man-made — not a natural — disaster. And, the men (and women) who were most responsible for making it a disaster is the Army Corps of Engineers whose mismanagement, the movie argues, caused the city’s levees to rupture during the storm. And, “The Big Uneasy” further contends that many the same issues the first time around are being repeated in the rebuilding process.

For more information about the film including where it is showing, click here.

“The Big Uneasy” director and New Orleans resident Harry Shearer.

What has been particularly interesting to me is the dichotomy between the communities that are accustomed to evacuating and others that are not. When Earl threatened the Eastern Seaboard where (and whether) it would hit land was unclear so all areas were at least contemplating evacuation if not implementing it.

North Carolina’s Outer Banks undertook an evacuation, but that is old hat for residents of that often-threatened community. But by contrast, other (especially more urban) areas do not have that evacuation muscle memory. For a time, there was a concern that heavily-populated places, like Long Island without evacuation track records, were in the storm’s path. There was even thought that residents of low-lying areas of New York City might have to leave their homes. Of course, Earl luckily swerved into the Atlantic and we moved on to the next subject. But I still have significant concerns that this area could undertake a major evacuation at the present time even with warning.

Nevertheless, when government officials talk about the subject of emergency evacuation with the public and the media they don’t normally differentiate between communities that are evacuation veterans and those which are not.

Further, and more seriously I would argue, is the question of unexpected evacuation due to an unexpected incident such as a terrorist attack that could impact all parts of the country. It is an even more complex challenge which receives very little discussion at the local and national levels. In fact, most emergency authorities ask citizens to create and rehearse their own plans with little guidance (and so it shouldn’t be surprising why so few folks have). As has been mentioned frequently on the blog, there is a need to work through these issues together. To me, it could be even integrated into existing fire evacuation as well.

It would have been nice if some of these warnings, such as Hurricane Earl, would have provoked the public, the media and government officials to focus attention on the challenge of unexpected evacuation. It would be an opportunity to discuss further concepts such as ’shelter in place’.

But I think the fact that Outer Banks residents and tourists are able to evacuate the barrier islands swiftly and orderly is fooling the nation that somehow we are on top of the issue of emergency evacuation. It is time that this topic gets more attention, because officials are warning that the unexpected is actually the expected.

Residents and tourists on North Carolina’s Outer Banks evacuate before Hurricane Earl.

University of Delaware students lined up for what they were told was going to be a “GREEK” group picture but soon learned organizers had other plans. As students filed into Delaware Stadium they learned they weren’t just there for a picture but to practice emergency evacuation procedures. Around 2,000 students showed up for the drill before being dismissed to the Bob Carpenter Center for the picture.

That’s a ‘bait and switch’ for a good cause.

This day would be the time that we developed and practiced our emergency plans, filled our disaster kits and were briefed on potential threats. This would be useful for both first responders and the public. Both Japan and China have specific days — on the anniversary of major earthquakes — in which citizens undertake practice drills. (Some cities and states, such as Kansas, have also picked a particular day within National Preparedness Month to focus attention on the subject.)

The question I have been wrestling with is when that day should be. Personally, I’ve thought that September 11 would be the most appropriate day since it is when Americans are most focused on the issue and as a fitting tribute to those who died. A couple of preparedness officials I have spoken to object to 9/11, because it is too tied to terrorism rather than all hazards.

However, last week during a press conference call, FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate mentioned a fact I didn’t realize — the “peak” of  the hurricane season is the 2nd week of September, precisely September 1oth. In fact, as Andrew Revkin points out, there are three hurricanes (a rarity) in the Atlantic this week. So, I would now suggest either the 10th or 11th which would combine attention on both types of disaster threats.

In a video interview (below), Serino said that with Hurricane Earl heading up the Eastern Seaboard “today is the day for people to be prepared,” particularly in the New England area which may bear the brunt of the storm. Serino, who is from the Boston area, recommends that citizens get ready by charging their cellphones, filling their gas tanks and getting some extra cash.

FEMA Deputy Administrator Richard Serino

He told Robin Roberts that people who live in evacuation zones need to plan to evacuate if necessary, have a destination now and follow the storm closely. For those who need guidance in creating an emergency plan, he suggested checking Ready.Gov.

FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate interviewed on “Good Morning America” today about Hurricane Earl.

Fugate has also been tweeting “Hurricane 101″ tips, including most recently: “if you evacuate, take your pets with you. looking for a hotel that takes pets www.petswelcome.com www.officialpethotels.com.”

Earl and Fiona Approach East Coast (Photo: NOAA)

It was little less cheeky than his reminder tweet from the day before:

Usually, preparedness messaging — particularly as a threat approaches — is Boy Scout earnest (and Fugate uses that approach as well — see below).

But Twitter has allowed the Administrator to also offer some more refreshingly more casual, irreverent messages — that use humor and even a little sarcasm to try to get through to Americans to prepare. The character limits, the volume of Tweets and the targeted nature of social media makes it a good medium for experimentation, particularly when (like Fugate) you have a gregarious, infectious personality with a nice sense of humor — and you have heard of every excuse for not preparing from the public during a long emergency management career. The fact is that the straight forward approach has largely not worked.

Fugate’s Twitter feed should embolden emergency managers to try some more direct and conversational approaches that officials might not feel comfortable saying during a news conference or in a press release.

The Times-Picayune, which did such heroic coverage during and after Katrina, solicited these ideas from readers in 2006 and printed them weekly during hurricane season. In June of 2007, the paper reprinted “a comprehensive selection”, calling it the ”ultimate insiders guide to evacuee readiness. Enjoy and prepare.” The list is so interesting, because it reflects the real-life experiences of disaster survivors.

Though you may not agree with all of the ideas suggested and some are area specific, I think you will find it worth reading through this collection as a resource, an example of citizen resilience and even, yes, how humor is necessary in the face of crisis. The article is also an example of the huge potential the media has to spur citizen preparedness if it focused more on the topic.

The approximately 75 submissions have been divided by the author James O’Byrne into categories, including: On The Road Again, Kids And Pets, Staying Behind, Guest Relations, Take This Job And Leave It, Precious Papers Important Photos, Food For Thought, Potty Time, & The Big Picture. The tips range from ”Take blank checks, internet passwords, copies of bills, long distance phone card, walkie talkies” and “Apply for a gas credit card” to “Perfume. No showers for 10 days. We stunk so bad” and “Keep nice with your Dallas relative with the big house.”

Below are a couple of representative e-mails that will give you a sense of these survivor tips:

I always prided myself in being super organized before Katrina. In the safe-deposit box at the bank, I had placed the original savings bonds I was using to finance my sons’ college education, a video of my home’s contents and negatives of both my sons’ first days of life. My home in Lakewood South had 6½ feet of water. The lobby of the bank in Lakeview flooded, too!

Only copies of important papers are kept in the safe-deposit box now. I personally keep all original documents in a small fireproof box that is portable and will go wherever I go. In that box, too, is a stash of cash (proved to be very valuable last year) as well as my “password list” containing all necessary info to manage bills and finances online.

Videos of my sons have now been transferred to DVDs. They’re in plastic bags that are stored in the bottom of my Rubbermaid container that also will go with me. Digital pictures of my new home replace the home video. (After a catastrophic loss, the insurance companies want only pictures, I have learned.) I have my “Katrina Book” that also will go with me this year — inside is every important phone number, registration number, etc., which are critical for life after a storm.

CHERYL LITWIN,
New Orleans

What worked for us? Nothing. What would I do differently? I shall start listing:
Do not watch the news anywhere around your kids. Ever.
Do not leave ANY pet behind thinking you will only be gone for two days.
Know how to text message if the cell phones are no longer working.
Have an emergency account set up with a NATIONAL bank so when you cannot access money from your local bank there is a back-up fund.
Bring more than a few days worth of clothes.
Bring a copy of children’s shot records.
Know what “teaching methods” are taught in your school (yes, I was asked that question several times!).
Every year when getting your pets vaccinated, get a copy of updates to bring while evacuating.
Let people who want to take care of you and love you do just that. This is not boot camp or a pride parade. Let others help.
Bring pictures of items in your home for your insurance claim.
Bring needed medications.
Bring some wine.
Tell your family and friends where you are going and work out a “contact person” on the outside who can give your information to worried friends and family.
Never depend on the government. If it looks like a storm is coming and Bob Breck and Margaret Orr are a little stressed — GET OUT.
Brush up on some of those prayers your momma taught you. And just know we have been through the worst. It can never get as bad as it did. We are a strong people.

CLAIRE KOCH,
New Orleans

The entire article with all the tips/lessons learned can be found here.

The fascinating study notes that the recovery effort — “in the last five years, hundreds of citizens, government leaders, business and civic leaders, nonprofits, and philanthropies have been tirelessly working together” — is becoming a case study of regional community resilience.

The report. “An Overview of Greater New Orleans: From Recovery to Transformation,” was written by Amy Liu and Allison Plyer. It is part of a joint project of Brookings’ Metropolitan Policy Program and the  Greater NewOrleans Community Data Center called the New Orleans Index at Five.

In the introduction, the authors write:

It has been often said that New Orleanians are resilient. They have to be after being dealt three crises in five years—Hurricane Katrina and the levee breaches, the Great Recession, and now the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. To be resilient is to be able to recover from a major stress or shock. But New Orleanians have issued a more laudable challenge for themselves after Hurricane Katrina: They must not only bounce back, but do so better than before.

Yet, as the nation witnesses another disaster unfolding in the Gulf Coast region on the eve of the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, some have questioned whether New Orleans can rebound at all. The answer is yes. The city and metro area have been recovering from Katrina and, in fact, may even be on the path to transformation.

National attention on the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has overshadowed the more mundane but herculean task of reinventing New Orleans. In the last five years, hundreds of citizens, government leaders, business and civic leaders, nonprofits, and philanthropies have been tirelessly working together to ensure that the city they love emerges from the 2005 hurricanes with all of the city’s assets preserved but its flaws corrected.

The report’s research found:

• Despite sustaining three “shocks” in the last five years [Katrina, recession and oil spill], greater New Orleans is rebounding and, in some ways, doing so better than before.

• Further, greater New Orleans has become more “resilient,” with increased civic capacity and new systemic reforms, better positioning the metro area to adapt and transform its future.

• Yet, key economic, social, and environmental trends in the New Orleans metro area remain troubling, testing the region’s path to prosperity.

The report (as well as the related work in the Index project) has some really interesting research and analysis on New Orleans recovery thus far and the road ahead. It notes that the community has used the post-Katrina period to make major reforms in its public schools, health care delivery, criminal justice system and neighborhood development efforts, though obviously there is a long way to go. The full study can be found here.

Thanks to the Recovery Diva, Claire Rubin, for posting this on her blog.

Last year, as officials of the Southernmost City reviewed their emergency plans, they again considered the possibility of a prohibition during a storm, said Craig Marston, division chief of emergency management and training at the Key West Fire Department.

Safety first, they decided. If a hurricane seems threatening enough, they might declare a ban.

The problem, as they see it, is that famous Keys attitude. Boozers could be too tipsy to take precautions and too drunk to leave during a mandatory evacuation, they fear, and too wobbly to wield chainsaws for the post-hurricane cleanup.

“We have to protect ourselves from ourselves,” Marston said. Monroe County hospitals are required to close during evacuations, so “something as simple as a broken leg can be a life-threatening injury.”

But many Keys residents and business owners think they should be able to relieve their hurricane-related stress with alcohol — before, during and after the storm.

I’d be curious what emergency managers, including Florida’s former head EM head Craig Fugate, think about this idea. The full article can be found here.

Key West residents ’sheltering in place’?

The 5 cities are Atlantic City, Savannah, Tampa Bay, New York City & Miami/Fort. Lauderdale.

Savannah, Georgia

Knabb explains why he assembled this list:

Every community along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the United States is at risk for the direct impacts of a hurricane. Some areas have experienced hurricanes at greater frequency than others, and are more prone to experiencing stronger hurricane impacts.

Since a disastrous hurricane in any one metropolitan area is a fairly rare event, some residents can live in an area for a long period of time, perhaps even most or all of their lives, without experiencing one, despite living in a vulnerable location.

People in other areas have not been so fortunate in recent years, with devastation fresh in their minds while still recovering, but remaining as much at risk as ever.

So, it seems instructive to highlight examples of locations that are both vulnerable and overdue for a very significant hurricane impact. Doing so can help remind residents of any area that has escaped a hurricane disaster for quite some time that what has happened to others could happen to them too. (New Orleans, Gulfport-Biloxi, Galveston and Houston are examples of locations not on this list because they’ve recently been severely hit.)

The full article can be found here.

“Coastline counties along the Atlantic and Gulf, as well as the Hawaiian Islands, account for nearly two-thirds of the nation’s coastline population and are home to four of the nation’s 10 most populous counties,” said Steven Wilson of the Census Bureau’s Population Division, who co-authored the report. “As hurricane season begins, this report should put into perspective the number of Americans living along the coast who might be affected.”

All in all, 87 million people, or 29 percent of the U.S. population, live in coastline counties, including more than 41 million in Atlantic and 32 million in Pacific counties. In 1960, only 47 million lived in coastline counties.

The danger of growth in coastal areas has been a regular talking point of FEMA head Craig Fugate throughout his tenure in Washington and beforehand as Director of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management Agency. Fugate frequently points out that local coastal development policies have contributed to turning natural hazards into natural disasters.

The Census report, “Coastline Population Trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008,” examines population trends along the country’s saltwater edges — coastline counties — and their shares of coastline states during the period. Specifically, it analyzes trends in the growth and decline, geographic distribution and density of the coastline population. It also incorporates historical data on the trajectories of hurricanes striking the U.S. coastlines to gauge the coastline population’s experience with hurricanes.

Other highlights of the study include:

* The number of housing units along the Gulf of Mexico’s coastline increased by 246 percent from 1960 to 2008, compared with 130 percent in the Pacific and 98 percent in the Atlantic coastline regions and 121 percent for the U.S. as a whole. The number of housing units along the U.S. coastline grew from 16 million to 36 million during this time.

* On average, the 11 coastline counties that were hit by 11 or more hurricanes from 1960 to 2008 increased in population by nearly 179 percent and had a housing unit increase of 255 percent. Among these counties, only Hyde, N.C., lost population (-10.1 percent) and only St. Bernard Parish, La., lost housing units (-2.6 percent).

* Excluding Alaska, the average density of coastline counties increased from 260 people per square mile in 1960 to 480 in 2008. On average, they are twice as densely populated as noncoastline counties. Among the coastline states, only the coastline sections of New York (between 1970 and 1980), Louisiana (from 1980 to 1990 and 2000 to 2008) and Mississippi (from 2000 to 2008) had declines in population density during any decade.

This report is a reminder of the Census Bureau’s role in preparedness providing demographic information to emergency managers. In fact, the Bureau will be releasing this week a new online tool for state and local planners to prepare for hurricanes. (Thanks to my CERT team member Will Sanchez who suggested this topic to me.)

According to an Associated Press story by Jennifer Kay in USA Today:

The scale was changed to alleviate confusion over storm surge and flooding predictions that didn’t match what actually happened as a hurricane made landfall, said Chris Landsea, science operations officer at the National Hurricane Center and leader of the team that made the changes.

The new scale still classifies hurricanes by maximum sustained wind speeds, starting at 74 mph with Category 1. Category 3 and above is considered a “major hurricane,” and the strongest with winds greater than 155 mph is Category 5.

More importantly, it tells people how strong a storm it will take to bring down the trees, fences, power lines and walls around them. The damage descriptions to homes, shopping centers and industrial buildings are more specific than the previous version and updated to reflect more coastal development.

Hurricane Alex approaches land as seen from a NOAA satellite photo (Associated Press)

Officials hope the new approach will alleviate public confusion:

The revised Saffir-Simpson scale eliminates references to flooding caused by rain and estimates for storm surge, or the mound of seawater pushed ahead by a hurricane’s winds. This simplifies the scale and shows that forecasters now have a better understanding of how storm surge works, said Florida’s state meteorologist, Amy Godsey. The problem with the previous version was how inconsistent it proved to be when it came to storm surge, she said.

For example, a compact Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004 in southwestern Florida with Category 4 winds, but it had the storm surge previously expected from a much weaker hurricane. A very large Hurricane Ike made landfall just outside Galveston, Texas, in 2008 as a Category 2 hurricane with a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet a peak associated with a Category 4 or 5 hurricane on the old scale. If Ike made landfall in Daytona Beach, it only would have produced a storm surge around 8 feet, Landsea said.

On the U.S. Atlantic coast, the deep waters offshore produce a smaller storm surge than the more shallow Gulf of Mexico.

“It’s like the difference between having a plate full of water and a bowl full of water,” Landsea says. “Put a fan next to them, and the water will be pushed off the plate, but the water will just swirl around in the bowl.”

…Storm surge and flooding forecasts will remain in hurricane advisories and statements issued by the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service offices.

The hurricane center is considering adding a storm-surge warning to its list of watches and warnings during hurricane season. Sometimes places outside the cone of a hurricane warnings can still be vulnerable to storm surge, hurricane center director Bill Read said. No decision on adding storm-surge warnings will come for another two or three years.

The revision to the Saffir-Simpson scale took more than a year. Five wind engineers submitted updated descriptions of wind damage, and a draft was released for public comment last year. It’s the first update to the scale since barometric pressure was removed from it about a decade ago, Landsea said.

If you can’t see a threat, or describe it in terms that the average person can understand or appreciate, is it really a threat? That was the challenge put before 200+ scientists, physicists, meteorologists and other very technical specialists at the Space Weather Enterprise Forum on June 8 at the National Press Club. This highly unique assembly gathered to discuss the emerging concerns regarding increasingly dramatic changes in our universe’s space weather.

Space weather you ask? First off, this is not about meteor showers, alien invasions or Texas-sized asteroids colliding with the Earth. Rather, it is about how our sun and planet interact with one another and impact upon our atmosphere and life here on Earth.

Skeptical? Rich notes that Space Weather is on the radar of the nation’s top preparedness official, FEMA head Craig Fugate, who believes there is a need to educate the country on the threat:

He explained that as the person who leads America’s largest emergency management network, the country is looking to him and FEMA colleagues to take action on a range of threats, such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc. When he mentioned the threat of geo-magnetic storm or other space weather disturbance, he explained that nearly no one – from the general public to other emergency managers to the people he interacts with at the White House – has a clue on what he is talking about. He called upon the Space Weather Forum attendees to get him better data, better forecasts, and increased warnings so that he, along with others in the room, could better educate policy makers and the general public. Without it, he could not adequately prepare the public.

Fugate also drove home the point through anecdotal examples that when a geomagnetic or solar storm event occurs, it will not just impact one small geographic area like a flood, fire, or tornado. Impacts with such a storm would be hemispheric in size and would have tremendous disruptions to infrastructures (e.g. communications, power/energy, etc.).

In chronicling the history of these events and their previous occurrences, Fugate stated bluntly that we as a nation are not ready to deal with these storms. He further explained that while the country had endured previous large geomagnetic storms, our country and world today are so absolutely dependent upon a range of vulnerable technologies (e.g., satellite transmissions, GPS, cell phones, etc.) to run everything that when “the big one” hits us, we are going to be in really bad shape. In that situation, the idea of who is in charge of what becomes very important and no one had a good idea of those responsibilities at the present time.

Fugate shared that he was starting to exercise his senior leadership team and other FEMA personnel to begin thinking through these scenarios. He also explained that he had exercises on the horizon to expose more federal, state, local, and tribal personnel to these prospective situations as well. While he spoke in generalities about his concerns, Fugate specifically mentioned the survivability of GPS and existing communications architectures.

One in three have no family disaster plan, the Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey found on the eve of the summer hurricane season, which the government predicted Thursday could produce up to seven major hurricanes.

Even in Florida, where 44 percent of residents live in an evacuation zone, one in six respondents said they would refuse to evacuate if ordered.

The survey finds gaps in many areas, according to the article:

The poll found gaps in knowledge, insurance and evacuation plans among the respondents.

More than half the respondents didn’t know that storm surge represents the greatest threat of death from a hurricane and 95 percent didn’t know that garage doors are the most likely part of the house to fail.

About half the respondents don’t have flood insurance and nearly as many live in an evacuation zone without having an inventory of their belongings.

One in four respondents said they would evacuate as far as possible to outrun the storm. But 40 percent said they wouldn’t leave as a major storm approached. One in five said they would leave only a day before landfall of a storm, which threatened traffic gridlock.

“As important as it is to prepare before a storm, it is just as vital to stay out of harm’s way after a storm,” said Max Mayfield, a WPLG forecaster and former director of the National Hurricane Center. “Too many deaths occur in the aftermath of a storm, when conditions are still dangerous.”

The poll was part of the National Hurricane Survival Initiative, a 15-year collaboration of the National Emergency Management Association, the Salvation Army, Florida International University’s International Hurricane Research Center, the National Hurricane Center and corporate sponsor Plylox.

In 2004 and 2005, Florida went through one of the most hellacious two-year stretches on record. Four hurricanes slammed the state in 2004; and the following year, a record number of storms formed, with Katrina and Wilma smashing South Florida.

You’d think people got the message. But five hurricane-free years later, and with a new season starting today, a new study concludes that too many Floridians are woefully under-prepared, under-educated, and under-motivated.

And worse, they don’t know it. ”Too few people in the most dangerous areas realize they’re at risk, and too many people in relatively safe locations think they’re at greater risk than they are,” Florida State University geography professor Jay Baker, a veteran of such studies, said last week.

Baker’s study, commissioned by the Florida Division of Emergency Management, found that nearly two-thirds of residents in zones that would be evacuated in a major storm – of at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale – don’t believe they’d be at risk from both wind and water, or didn’t know.

And nearly as many inland residents believed their homes also would be unsafe, which leads to unwarranted evacuees clogging roads.

Survey figures are down from 2006, when 44 percent said they were better prepared for a disaster than they had been in the 2004-2005 storm seasons. In 2010, only 38 percent said they were better prepared than in 2000-2005.

The article continues:

Last week, a national Mason-Dixon poll of people from Virginia to Texas similarly found that nearly half the people in America’s hurricane strike zone say they don’t feel vulnerable to a hurricane or other severe weather; and one in three Floridians has no family disaster plan or hurricane preparation kit.

That poll came the same day federal forecasters predicted an “active to extremely active” hurricane season, with a 70 percent probability of 14 to 23 named storms, eight to 14 hurricanes and three to seven major hurricanes. The seasonal average is 11, six and two.

Baker’s most recent survey asked the same questions as those in a survey he did in the spring of 2006, with storms still fresh in people’s minds, he said from Tallahassee.

Among the highlights from respondents:

About half of residents did not have a definite evacuation plan, up slightly from 2006.

Very few people, knew the lead times for watches and warnings, and even fewer were aware those lead times are changing this year. Both will be announced 12 hours earlier than before, meaning tropical storm and hurricane watches will be issued when conditions are possible on the coast within 48 hours, and warnings will be issued when conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Florida residents said they had emergency lighting, important papers, prescription medicines, battery-powered radios, and adequate gasoline in their cars, but were less likely to say they have enough water and ice, about the same as 2006.

Most Floridians believe it is reasonable for agencies and organizations to have relief supplies available within 48 hours of a hurricane. When asked whether they expect that, a larger number said no; instead, they expect to be on their own for at least three days. That’s similar to 2006.

Two-thirds said they expected they’d be without power for a week or less after a storm, with 19 percent predicting 24 hours or less. The 2006 responses were similar, but people now were slightly more optimistic about how soon power would be restored.

Eighty to 90 percent said they’ve seen broadcast and print information. About 70 percent said they have access to the Internet, but only about a third had gone to local or state emergency management web sites or the National Hurricane Center’s web page. That’s similar to 2006.

Most said they have some sort of window protection, more than in 2006; but most had a system that had to be put in place when a storm threatens. The reported amount of window protection was higher in 2010 than in 2006.

Before a storm hits, the Internet-driven sites will allow people to monitor a tropical system’s progress, receive evacuation orders and learn which shelters are open. Unlike television or an Internet homepage, however, the messages are short and usually direct viewers to a link for more information.

After a storm, the social media will be used to alert the public about open stores and gas stations, warn which roads are clogged and estimate how long power might be out. This will be done by official agencies and the users themselves.

Officials say that social media augments conventional news sources, yet reaches some demographics better. It also has a two-way component that traditional media does not:

Most people will continue to rely on traditional news sources, including television, newspapers, radio and Internet weather sites to monitor storms. But those sources won’t necessarily reach those on the go — or younger people who use only social media sites.

“Social media is a very important tool for getting our message to customers who might not otherwise look for our information,” said Christopher Juckins, a meteorologist and technology programmer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County….

Broward County emergency management plans to increasingly use Twitter — in addition to television/radio/Internet and print media — to provide storm progress reports, notify residents when shelters are opening and what areas need to evacuate. It would be available on cell phones even if power shuts down and would allow the hearing impaired to receive information, said Judy Sarver, the county’s spokeswoman.

“We need to take advantage of every tool we have to reach the public with these safety messages,” she said. “We have so much information that we need to get out when a storm is coming.”

Mary Blakeney, operations manager for Palm Beach County emergency management, said while the county has a Twitter site, it will rely more on other media to relay important information.

The Twitter site has less than 300 followers, but when a storm threatens, the county needs to reach tens of thousands of coastal residents, said Blakeney.

“It’s really a new arena that a lot of people are starting to utilize,” she said.

The region’s major newspapers, including the Sun Sentinel, The Miami Herald and The Palm Beach Post, all send text messages to subscribers, providing updates on cell phones whenever storms threaten.

The Sun Sentinel plans to also use social media to extend its coverage of damage and other developments, said Christopher Tiedje, the newspaper’s social media coordinator.

“Basically, we’ll be asking our social media audience for updates from their areas,” he said. “Do they have photos of damage, is there ice at the corner store, do you still have power, can you get phone service? That kind of thing.”

SunSentinel.com also offers a sidebar with a list of social media sites that provide tropical storm information here.

Thanks to Glen Gilmore’s Crisis Social Media Twitter feed where I saw this article.

During the Virginia holiday, sales tax is eliminated for preparedness-related products that cost up to $60 or on generators $1,000 or less from May 25-31.

Suit calls the week a “‘man-made’ opportunity to promote preparedness” in a manner that solely an awareness-oriented readiness week cannot. She says it gives preparedness advocates “something to talk about with the public” —  a tangible benefit — rather than just pleading with them to prepare every hurricane season.

Normally, when government wants to influence social behavior, it goes beyond words and employs carrots and/or sticks: incentives (retirement savings, recycling) or disincentives (it’s ‘click or ticket‘). The former, incentives, is far more appropriate for preparedness. But to date, with the exception of these tax free holidays tried by a couple of states, government has not used any incentives on preparedness. So, it’s not surprising the public has by and large not acted, and the nation has not made enough progress on citizen readiness. In Virginia, using a ‘carrot’ — one of the public sector’s levers (the tax code) — sent a message to Commonwealth residents as well as its media and private sector that government is serious about this policy objective.

Suit says that the “retail community has taken the week and run with it”. A number of major retailers have integrated preparedness products into their overall marketing promotion this week: Walmart will use ReadyVirginia flyers as bag stuffers, Target will run newspaper advertising and place point of purchase info on exempt items, Kroger will run newspaper advertising and make in-store displays. Lowe’s will take out newspaper advertising and make in-store displays of tax exempt items.

Lowe’s will also be giving customers an additional 10 to 15 percent discount on these hurricane-related products when they shop during the holiday (see ad below). The holiday is also sponsored by the Virginia Chamber of Commerce and state Retail Merchants Association. Profit incentive for private sector makes it more likely they will work hard to promote and distribute products to the public. rather than just putting up signs encouraging people to buy supplies.

Though Suit clearly believes that the holiday is a success, it is difficult to evaluate with a reliable metric either how much the public’s preparedness has increased or the tax holiday’s revenue impact as the state cannot measure sales tax it does not receive. I (and the retailers) would argue that bringing more people into the stores — particularly during difficult economic times — results in incremental sales and taxes on non-emergency items.

Louisiana, the only other state with a tax free preparedness period (May 29-30), did a study that estimated that the weekend cost $2 million in lost tax revenue on emergency products. But I think a better indicator is the enthusiasm of retailers for the holiday, which they believe brings in new (and taxed) revenue in other parts of their stores. And to Virginia’s Suit, who is responsible for preparing a state which has been hit hard by hurricanes, says, “we can’t afford not to do it.” What also needs to be counted in any fiscal evaluation is the amount of paid corporate advertising and increased media coverage, particularly in comparison to the infrequent and inconvenient rotation that the unpaid preparedness PSA’s usually receive.

A Lowe’s newspaper advertisement in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch promoting Virginia’s Hurricane Preparedness Holiday,

As Virginia’s experience has shown, there much more that could and should be done to create preparedness partnerships with private sector on the local and national level. This week, during FEMA’s webinar kicking off National Preparedness Month, a participant on the call asked officials from the Ready Campaign if the government would be working with businesses to make emergency supplies available for activities during the Month. It’s a great question. But at present, the answer is no, which is missing a great opportunity.

As has been frequently discussed on this blog, government should be reaching out to manufacturing and retail companies in the preparedness field (ie. food, wireless devices, bottled water, big box stores) to work out marketing/promotion tie-ins that would offer free or deeply discounted products — in addition to the sales tax break — as part of preparedness information activities. (As the government has limitations working directly with companies, it would want to include the American Red Cross to work with the sponsors).

For example, why not partner with wireless communications retailers to provide a discount on cell batteries or phones (or free minutes) if people brought in a completed family communications plan into the stores? Or big box store could offer an extra free emergency supply six pack of bottled water with the purchase of a case. Or discounts to fill ‘go-bags’? Here again is a perfect opportunity for a win-win-win for the public, business and government emergency management departments. Businesses want to do more around preparedness because it gives them the opportunity to do good and do well (as this press release from Target indicates). As with most obstacles to citizen preparedness, it takes focus and coordination more than money to move forward.

President Obama just issued a proclamation declaring the 23rd-29th National Hurricane Preparedness Week. But while well meaning the document, to be frank, is just perfunctory words: “I urge individuals, families, communities, and businesses to take time to plan for the storm season before it begins.” By contrast Virginia Governor’s McDonnell’s Preparedness Week announcement has the same exhortations of the President, but it comes along with some tangible initiatives to make it easier for the public to actually follow the recommendations. And all that is necessary is to pass the law and then some organizing by the Commonwealth’s Department of Emergency Management.

In his proclamation, Obama says:

“The National Hurricane Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the Federal Emergency Management Agency, recommend taking several important steps to ensure safety. These precautions include: developing a family disaster plan; maintaining an emergency supply kit; securing homes, businesses, and belongings; and learning evacuation routes.”

But a survey released by the U.S. Homeland Security Department’s Citizen Corps last year indicates that most Americans are ignoring both FEMA and NOAA and, for that matter, the President himself who made the same request of Americans to prepare last year. The ask would be far more effective if the Administration had already worked with the private sector to provide supplies for the public, had passed legislation allowing citizens to write off emergency supplies, or had established a day when Americans would rehearse their plans.

Now, that might sound to some people as a lot, particularly relative to what the government does now on preparedness. But if officials are serious about citizen readiness — and I think they are — then government has to followup those words with actions. If not, then let’s not expect citizens to be prepared in advance and make our disaster response plans reflect that. (I also don’t think most Americans would object to targeted, inexpensive and useful initiatives on disaster preparedness.)

Suit, a former state legislator said the tax holiday enjoys bipartisan support in the legislature. It was originally signed by a Democratic governor and is being continued by his Republican successor. Virginia is one of two states (along with Louisiana) that have a tax holiday for preparedness products. The idea is not a panacea, but Suit says any state that wants to being more attention citizen preparedness should try it.

Here in New York, I recommended it to my local State Assemblyman Jonathan L. Bing. He introduced a bill which would create which would create a ‘tax holiday’ for preparedness supplies and “Go-Bags,” in the New York State House. Under the legislation, New Yorkers would be able to buy emergency supplies without paying state sales tax between September 1st-11th (the period between the anniversaries of 9/11 and Katrina) and purchase pre-made “Go-Bags” tax free throughout the month.

According to Examiner.com,

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may rival some of the worst in history with meteorological conditions mirroring the 2005 season, the record-breaking year that spawned the Mississippi/New Orleans devastating hurricane named Katrina. According to Accuweather.com’s chief hurricane meteorologist, Joe Bastardi, not only will it be a very active hurricane season ahead, but it could even rank in the top 10 most active seasons.

Bastardi is predicting a total of 16 to 18 named storms this season. If this prediction comes to past, the 2010 hurricane season will rank in the top 10 with only 8 years in 160 years on record with seasons of 16 or more named storms. He also predicts the season will begin early and remain active well into the month of October. He cited a rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico and the collapsing El Nino pattern for the heightened forecast activity. Both situations were characteristic of the busy 1998 and record-setting 2005 hurricane seasons.

Many of the tropical named storms are forecast to be long lived storms that may track far across the Atlantic and Caribbean from the coast of Africa to the U.S. Coastline with at least 6 possible strikes.

Colorado State forecaster William Gray also has predicted an above average season though not as severe as Bastardi’s prediction. Thanks to the Twitter feed of @Break_Glass for bringing this to my attention. Accuweather.com also has a related article that asks “What If A Hurricane Were To Slam Into The Oil Slick?”: The answer: nothing good.

On the citizen and community preparedness front, the GAO urged NOAA to expand the TsunamiReady program and examine why participation has been limited among at risk areas:

“Although the number of TsunamiReady communities has increased from 27 in 2006 to 74 as of February 2010, overall participation in this voluntary program remains relatively low among the more than 760 communities identified as at risk for a tsunami. In this regard, GAO recommended in 2006 that NOAA conduct an assessment to identify potential barriers to program participation. Although NOAA has not yet conducted this assessment, GAO continues to believe that such an assessment is needed to help inform the agency’s strategic planning efforts.”

According to GAO, “NOAA reviewed a draft of this report and agreed with its recommendations.” You can find a podcast and transcript with the GAO staffer in charge of the report, Anu Mittal, here. (Thanks to the Natural Hazards Center for bringing the report to my attention.)

Why Twitter?

An advantage of searching Twitter for weather reports is the capability to utilize recently added “geotagging” — geographical information that is associated with something, in this case individual Tweets. This allows the NWS to correlate each Tweet to its location when it was sent. This capability will help to enhance and increase timely and accurate online weather reporting and communication between the public and their local weather forecast offices. The reports will be carefully evaluated during the experiment to ensure quality and timeliness.

Who Can Participate?

Anyone with a Twitter account can participate. Note: Trained storm spotters should use pre-established communication methods (toll-free line, eSpotter, etc.), when possible, to send severe weather reports to the NWS.

The site also shows how to use the Twitter geotagging feature as well as how to report without a geotag. As far as what to report, the Weather Service instructs:

You can tweet any weather event that occurs in your local area, but we are most interested in significant events: snowfall, severe weather, flooding, etc. In particular:

Damage from winds–briefly describe what was damaged and time it occurred; Hail–include size of hail and time it fell; Tornadoes or funnel clouds; Flooding–briefly describe what is occurring; Snowfall during an event and storm total. When reporting snowfall, include the time period when it fell; Freezing rain or freezing drizzle producing a ‘glaze’ on objects or roads; Dense fog restricting visibility to less than a half mile.

This outreach initiative builds upon the Weather Service’s SkyWarn program which includes 260,000 Storm Spotters across the U.S. who have been trained to help report dangerous conditions. (Thanks to Keith Robertory for bringing the new program to my attention.)

Congress reinstated the National Flood Insurance Program Monday. But the beleaguered plan is more than $18 billion in debt, and a strategy to put the program back on an even keel seems nearly unreachable. According to a Government Accountability Office report released Wednesday, the NFIP is not “actuarially sound” and suffers from operational issues as well. The program, which was created in 1968 to fill gaps in private sector flood insurance, is poorly structured for providing coverage, the report stated.

“NFIP cannot do some of the things that private insurers do to manage their risks,” according to the report summary. “For example, NFIP is not structured to build a capital surplus, is likely unable to purchase reinsurance to cover catastrophic losses, cannot reject high-risk applicants, and is subject to statutory limits on rate increases. In addition, its premium rates do not reflect actual flood risk.”

Even so, a recent 18-day funding lapse that closed NFIP offices, leaving hundreds in home-buying limbo, highlighted the need for some sort of stopgap flood coverage. Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota estimated that 1,400 prospective homeowners a day couldn’t close on mortgages without access to the NFIP, according the Associated Press.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, which operates the program, has made improvements, according to congressional testimony given by FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate Wednesday. Among the advances he cited were the creation of an NFIP Reform Working Group, an extensive update of the nation’s flood insurance rate maps, and a push for community awareness and participation.

We learned two very valuable things from the [NFIP Reform Group] listening sessions,” Fugate stated in the testimony. “First and foremost, we learned that the NFIP still provides an essential service to the American people that would be otherwise unavailable or unaffordable. Second, we confirmed that the NFIP requires meaningful reform.”

The GAO recommends that those reforms include stepping up rates to reflect risks and providing more oversight of companies that sell flood policies. The current NFIP funding extension is set to expire again on May 31.

Join the Blowout now and stay with us throughout April and May as surprise celebrities and experts will guide you through the right steps to get you and your home prepared.

Follow us as the six phases unfold and get the whole family involved. As each phase goes live, it will build on the last to create a comprehensive preparedness plan that answers important questions like: Where will you go if you have to evacuate? What will you take with you? Will you stay home and shelter in place with your disaster supply kit? What will you keep in your kit? How will your home and your belongings fare if a storm strikes?

Move through the Blowout with us and, by the beginning of hurricane season on June 1st, you will be able to answer these questions and breathe easy knowing that you’re ready. On June 1st, you can join us and Dine in the Dark to test your new disaster supply kits by cooking up celebrity “power-free” recipes and more.

For more information, you can visit www.GreatHurricaneBlowout.org and view materials, tools, videos and photos to help them prepare for home emergencies caused by natural disasters.

The preliminary report, according to CNN.com, predicts 15 named storms and eight of those becoming hurricanes:

Forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach said that El Niño conditions will dissipate by summer and that unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist, leading to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify.

Of the eight expected hurricanes, the forecasters predict that four will strengthen to major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of strength. Category 3 storms have sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The forecast said the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent….

Last year’s hurricane season was below average, with nine named tropical storms, three of which were hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center said it was the lowest number of tropical storms for the Atlantic basin since 1997.

The full report can be found here. In the short video, shot at FEMA’s National Response Coordination Center, Fugate challenges the public saying, “We’re getting ready…Are you?” and urges Americans to visit Ready.Gov. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.

In the end, Ida ended up weakening and did not have as serious impact on the U.S. as originally feared. Nonetheless, Jeannette’s post offers some nice insight on the increasingly central role that social media will play in disaster response:

The Hurricane Information Center was established during the heydays of the Democratic National Convention in August 2008. As the Convention was winding down, a Ning network was established to facilitate a distributed network of volunteers who could bring together disparate sources of information into a single online platform of technology mashups.

More than 500 people participated in this effort. They identified relevant Twitter feeds; annotated maps with evacuation routes, shelters, and available resources; linked to updated news stories; and edited a hurricane Wiki in real time. In true crowdsourced fashion, this network organized itself, invited newcomers with various levels of expertise to participate, and requested assistance with identified tasks.

The value of the information available through the Hurricane Information Center existed in its resources available to those looking for real-time information. The wisdom of the crowd, its collective intelligence, and self-monitoring behavior led to an example of a real-time, online, collective action taking that rivals examples of on the ground convergence routinely seen in disasters and crisis events.

Now, as Ida ramps up, the Hurricane Information Center has re-activated itself. Today, network founder Andy Carvin of NPR, sent out a call for help through an email blast which was repeated across various network participants’ personal blogs and through Twitter networks. It’s as if the horn has been sounded for the cavalry to assemble and they are preparing to mount their horses for the long ride into a potential disaster.

The second group to sound the alarm is Emicus.com. This website, launched by a Seattle start-up company, brings together newsfeeds from government, news, and the public and adds a number of sign-on features such as the “I’m OK” notification system. Here users can use the Emicus website to send text messages to their predetermined network, relaying the message that they are OK.

This hurricane season may be the first proving ground for Emicus, which was developed in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma (2005), and Gustav and Ike (2008). The Emicus professional staff, which works out of offices in Florida, Seattle, and San Francisco, will serve as the dedicated team to monitor and relay information posted on the website.

Two dedicated groups – one comprised of volunteers across the country in a crowdsourced effort, the other developed on an enterprise model – are both preparing to deliver safety-critical information in this impending hurricane. Observations of the efforts and output should not go un-noticed by those who are interested in learning more about the wisdom of the crowd and the uses of social media to prepare, respond, and manage disasters and crisis events.

As Jeannette points out, the Hurricane Information Center and Emicus are innovators in the use of social media in disasters. One challenge going forward is to spread awareness among the public of social media’s capabilities during disasters in advance so when the bugle is blown next time more citizens know how and where to assemble.